How to make better decisions under uncertainty

Many of the decisions we make every day are subject to uncertainty. Should I accept the job offer? Should I start that business? Should I marry my partner?

This course breaks down the main things you can do to make better decisions under uncertainty, from when to rely on the wisdom of the crowds to why simple formulas can sometimes make for optimal decisions. You will also discover why taking the “outside view” and practicing second-level thinking can give you the edge on your competition.

In each lesson, you will find an action that you can introduce into your everyday life. Take five minutes every day, and get the insights and tips you need to make better decisions.

   — students completed this course

   — recommend it to other students

   Teacher: Peter Sainsbury


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Course plan

Lesson 1. An Uncertain Future
Lesson 2. Gut
Lesson 3. The Inside Versus the Outside View
Lesson 4. The Wisdom of Crowds
Lesson 5. Concentrate on the Process, Not the Outcome
Lesson 6. Second-Level Thinking
Lesson 7. Thinking in Terms of Bets
Lesson 8. Keeping Emotion in Check
Lesson 9. Pros and Cons
Lesson 10. Formula for Success
+ Quiz



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  • Format
    One lesson delivered via email daily
  • Duration
    10 days
  • Time
    5 minutes reading a day

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